In the context of a two-state, two-trader financial market herd model introduced by Avery and Zemsky (1998) we investigate how informational ambiguity in conjunction with waves of optimism and pessimism affect investor behavior, social learning and price dynamics. Without ambiguity, neither herding nor contrarianism is possible. If there is ambiguity and agents have invariant ambiguity preferences, only contrarianism is possible. If on the other hand ambiguity is high and traders become overly exuberant (or desperate) as the asset price surges (or plummets), we establish that investor herding may drive prices away from fundamentals with economically relevant probability.
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机译：在艾利和泽姆斯基（Avery and Zemsky，1998）引入的两国，两国金融市场从众模型的背景下，我们研究了信息歧义以及乐观和悲观浪潮如何影响投资者的行为，社会学习和价格动态。没有模棱两可的话，放牧和逆势主义都是不可能的。如果存在歧义性，并且代理人具有不变的歧义性偏好，则只有逆势可能。另一方面，如果歧义性很高，并且随着资产价格飙升（或暴跌），交易者变得过于旺盛（或绝望），则我们可以确定，投资者追赶可能使价格偏离具有经济相关可能性的基本面。
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