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The impact of extreme weather events on budget balances and implications for fiscal policy

机译:极端天气事件对预算平衡的影响以及对财政政策的影响

摘要

This paper explores implications of climate change for fiscal policy by assessing the impact of large scale extreme weather events on changes in public budgets. We apply alternative measures for large scale extreme weather events and conclude that the budgetary impact of such events ranges between 0.23% and 1.1% of GDP depending on the country group. Developing countries face a much larger effect on changes in budget balances following an extreme weather event than do advanced economies. Based on these findings, we discuss implications for fiscal policy and publiclyprovided disaster insurance. Our policy conclusions point to the enhanced need to reach and maintain sound fiscal positions given that climate change is expected to cause an increase in the frequency and severity of natural disasters.
机译:本文通过评估大规模极端天气事件对公共预算变化的影响,探讨了气候变化对财政政策的影响。我们对大型极端天气事件采用了替代措施,并得出结论,此类事件的预算影响在GDP的0.23%至1.1%之间,具体取决于国家/地区组。相对于发达经济体,发展中国家在极端天气事件后对预算平衡变化的影响要大得多。基于这些发现,我们讨论了对财政政策和公共提供的灾害保险的影响。我们的政策结论指出,鉴于气候变化预计会导致自然灾害发生的频率和严重性增加,因此需要更多的职位来维持良好的财政状况。

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