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Consistently wrong: Neoclassical micro-foundations and the macroeconomic policy ineffectiveness hypothesis

机译:一贯错误:新古典微观基础和宏观经济政策无效假说

摘要

The rational expectations hypothesis (REH) is based on two assumptions. The first is that, economic agents learn through experience how to avoid systematic errors. The second is that these errors are identified with reference to a model. Imperfect information may lead economic agents to misperceive changes in nominal economic variables as real but they learn from their mistake, change their behavior and will not make the same mistake again. Therefore, relations estimated from historical data may not hold after economic agents learned about the effects of, say, expansionary macroeconomic policies (the Lucas critique). Repeating the policy will affect nominal variables (prices) but not the real economy (policy ineffectiveness hypothesis). Policy ineffectiveness is derived from models based on neoclassical micro-foundations, claimed to be the basis for rigorous science. In this paper we investigate the learning process rigorously. When pulled into employment by misperceived expansionary macroeconomic policy, what do workers actually learn? Do they actually experience the long-run solution of the neoclassical model? After the introduction we discuss learning in the context of rational expectations. We then analyze the workers' experience and the learning process, strictly applying neoclassical micro-foundations. We focus on two inconsistencies. First, unless unearned income is indexed, inflation will unambiguously cause labor supply to expand. Second, employers will respond to the macroeconomic impulse -misperceived or not - with capacity expansion rather than pure price reactions. We conclude that the predictions of the REH do not hold if neoclassical micro foundations are rigorously applied.
机译:理性预期假设(REH)基于两个假设。首先,经济主体通过经验学习如何避免系统错误。第二个是,这些错误是参考模型识别的。信息不完善可能会导致经济主体误认为名义经济变量的变化是真实的,但他们会从错误中吸取教训,改变其行为,不会再犯同样的错误。因此,在经济主体获悉扩张性宏观经济政策的影响之后,根据历史数据估计的关系可能就不成立了(卢卡斯批评)。重复执行政策将影响名义变量(价格),但不会影响实体经济(政策无效性假设)。政策无效性源自基于新古典微观基础的模型,该模型被认为是严格科学的基础。在本文中,我们严格地研究了学习过程。当工人由于误解性的扩张性宏观经济政策而被雇佣时,工人实际上学到了什么?他们是否真的体验了新古典主义模型的长期解决方案?介绍之后,我们讨论在理性期望的背景下学习。然后,我们严格按照新古典微观基础分析工人的经验和学习过程。我们关注两个不一致的地方。首先,除非将非劳动收入编入索引,否则通货膨胀无疑会导致劳动力供应扩大。其次,雇主将通过产能扩张而不是单纯的价格反应来应对宏观经济冲动(无论是否被误解)。我们得出的结论是,如果严格应用新古典的微观基础,对REH的预测将不成立。

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