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Credit rating agency announcements and the eurozone sovereign debt crisis

机译:信用评级机构公告和欧元区主权债务危机

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摘要

This paper studies the impact of credit rating agency (CRA) announcements on the value of the Euro and the yields of French, Italian, German and Spanish long-term sovereign bonds during the culmination of the Eurozone debt crisis in 2011-2012. The employed GARCH models show that CRA downgrade announcements negatively affected the value of the Euro currency and also increased its volatility. Downgrading increased the yields of French, Italian and Spanish bonds but lowered the German bond's yields, although Germany's rating status was never touched by CRA. There is no evidence for Granger causality from bond yields to rating announcements. We infer from these findings that CRA announcements significantly influenced crisis-time capital allocation in the Eurozone. Their downgradings caused investors to rebalance their portfolios across member countries, out of ailing states' debt into more stable borrowers' securities.
机译:本文研究了在2011-2012年欧元区债务危机达到高潮期间,信用评级机构(CRA)公告对欧元价值以及法国,意大利,德国和西班牙长期主权债券收益的影响。所采用的GARCH模型显示CRA降级公告对欧元币值产生了负面影响,并增加了其波动性。降级提高了法国,意大利和西班牙债券的收益率,但降低了德国债券的收益率,尽管德国的评级地位从未受到CRA的影响。从债券收益率到评级公告,没有证据显示格兰杰因果关系。我们从这些发现中推断,CRA公告显着影响了欧元区危机时期的资本配置。他们的降级导致投资者在成员国之间重新平衡其投资组合,摆脱了困境中的国家债务,转而持有更稳定的借款人的证券。

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