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Local Inflation: Reconsidering the International Comovement of Inflation

机译:地方通货膨胀:重新考虑国际通货膨胀联盟

摘要

In this paper we reconsider the degree of international comovement of inflation rates. We use a dynamic hierarchical factor model that is able to decompose Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation in a panel of countries into (i) a factor common to all inflation series and all countries, (ii) a factor specific to a given sub-section of the CPI, (iii) a country group-factor and (iv) a country-specific component. With its pyramidal structure, the model allows for the possibility that the global factor affects the country-group factor and other subordinated factors but not vice versa. Using quarterly data for industrialized and emerging economies from 1996 to 2011 we find that about two thirds of overall inflation volatility are due to country-specific determinants. For CPI inflation net of food and energy, the global factor and the CPI basketspecific factor account for less than 20% of inflation variation. We argue that local inflation rather than global inflation (Ciccarelli and Mojon (2010)) is a better description of the evidence. Only energy price inflation in industrial economies is dominated by common factors.
机译:在本文中,我们重新考虑了国际通货膨胀率的共同程度。我们使用动态分层因子模型,该模型能够将一组国家/地区的消费者物价指数(CPI)分解为(i)所有通胀系列和所有国家/地区共有的因子,(ii)给定子类别特定的因子, CPI部分,(iii)国家组因素和(iv)国家特定组成部分。该模型具有金字塔结构,因此可以考虑全球因素影响国家/地区因素和其他从属因素的可能性,反之亦然。使用1996年至2011年工业和新兴经济体的季度数据,我们发现总体通货膨胀率波动的三分之二是特定于国家/地区的决定因素。对于扣除食品和能源的CPI通胀而言,全球因素和CPI特定篮子因素占通胀变化的比例不到20%。我们认为,局部通胀而非全球通胀(Ciccarelli和Mojon(2010))是对证据的更好描述。工业经济中只有能源价格上涨受共同因素支配。

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