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How far do shocks move across borders? Examining volatility transmission in major agricultural futures markets

机译:冲击跨越国界多远?检查主要农产品期货市场的波动性传递

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摘要

This paper examines the level of interdependence and volatility transmission in global agricultural futures markets. We follow a multivariate GARCH approach to explore the dynamics and cross-dynamics of volatility across major exchanges of corn, wheat, and soybeans between the United States, Europe, and Asia. We account for the potential bias that may arise when considering exchanges with different closing times. The results indicate that agricultural markets are highly interrelated and there are both own- and cross-volatility spillovers and dependence among most of the exchanges. The results also show the major role Chicago plays in terms of spillover effects over the other markets, particularly for corn and wheat. Additionally, the level of interdependence between exchanges has only increased in recent years for some of the commodities.
机译:本文研究了全球农业期货市场中相互依存和波动传递的水平。我们遵循多元GARCH方法,研究美国,欧洲和亚洲之间主要玉米,小麦和大豆交易所之间的波动率的动力学和交叉动力学。我们考虑在考虑不同交易时间交易时可能出现的潜在偏差。结果表明,农产品市场高度相关,大多数交易所之间存在自身波动性和交叉波动性溢出以及依赖性。结果还显示,芝加哥在对其他市场(尤其是玉米和小麦)的溢出效应方面发挥了主要作用。此外,近年来,对于某些商品而言,交易所之间的相互依存程度只是增加了。

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