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Oil price fluctuations and oil consuming sectors: An empirical analysis of Japan

机译:油价波动与石油消费行业:日本的实证分析

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摘要

Since the oil price shocks of the 1970s, several studies have found significant impacts of oil prices on macro variables. However, it is particularly crucial to know how each micro sector in an economy, such as the residential, transport, industrial and non-energy sectors, respond to oil price impulses. In this research, we try to shed light on the impact of crude oil price volatility on each sector in Japan, the world's third-largest crude oil consumer. In order to do so, we apply a vector auto regression model and perform impulse response analysis by using quarterly data from Q1 1990 to Q1 2014. The findings indicate that some economic sectors, such as the residential sector, did not have significant sensitivity to the sharp oil price fluctuations. In contrast, some other sectors, like the commercial, industrial, and transport sectors, were strongly sensitive to the drastic oil price fluctuations. Moreover, our findings show that after the Fukushima disaster in 2011, which led to the shutdown of nuclear power plants in Japan, because of greater reliance on oil imports, the sensitivity of most sectors to oil price volatility declined.
机译:自1970年代石油价格震荡以来,几项研究已发现石油价格对宏观变量具有重大影响。但是,了解经济中的每个微观部门(例如住宅,交通,工业和非能源部门)如何响应油价冲动,尤其重要。在这项研究中,我们试图阐明原油价格波动对全球第三大原油消费国日本各部门的影响。为此,我们应用向量自回归模型,并使用1990年第一季度至2014年第一季度的季度数据进行冲激响应分析。研究结果表明,某些经济部门,例如住宅部门,对经济增长没有明显的敏感性。石油价格大幅波动。相反,其他一些部门,例如商业,工业和运输部门,对急剧的油价波动非常敏感。此外,我们的研究结果表明,在2011年福岛核电站事故导致日本核电厂停工之后,由于对石油进口的依赖增加,大多数行业对石油价格波动的敏感性下降了。

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