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Essays on Multinational Production and the Propagation of Shocks.

机译:关于跨国生产与冲击传播的论文。

摘要

The increased exposure of the United States to economic shocks originating from abroad is a common concern of those critical of globalization. An understanding of the cross-country transmission of shocks is of central importance for policymakers seeking to limit excess volatility resulting from international linkages. Firms whose ownership spans multiple countries are one under-appreciated mechanism. These multinationals represent an enormous share of the global economy, but a general scarcity of firm-level data has limited our understanding of how they affect both origin and destination countries. One contribution of this dissertation is to expand the data availability on these firms, using innovative data-linking techniques.The first chapter provides some of the first ever causal evidence on the role of trade and multinational production in the transmission of economic shocks and the cross-country synchronization of business cycles. This chapter leverages the 2011 Japanese earthquake/tsunami as a natural experiment. It finds that those U.S. firms with large exposure to intermediate inputs from Japan -- typically the affiliates of Japanese multinationals -- experience significant output declines after this shock, roughly one-for-one with declines in imported inputs. Structural estimation of the production function reveals substantial complementarities between imported and domestic inputs. These results suggest that global supply chains are more rigid than previously thought.The second chapter incorporates this low production elasticity of imported inputs into an otherwise standard dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. The low degree of input substitutability, when applied to the share of trade governed by multinational firms, can generate effects in the aggregate. Value-added co-movement increases by 11 percentage points in the baseline model relative to a model where such features are absent. The model confirms that real linkages -- in addition to financial and policy spillovers -- play an important role in business cycle synchronization.The third chapter describes additional characteristics of multinational firms relative to domestic and exporting firms in the U.S. economy. These firms are larger, more productive, more capital intensive, and pay higher wages than other firms. The relative patterns of trade and output offer valuable guidance for the motives for ownership that spans national boundaries.
机译:美国越来越多地受到来自国外的经济冲击,这是对全球化提出批评的人们的共同关切。对于试图限制国际联系造成的过度动荡的政策制定者来说,了解跨国冲击的传递至关重要。所有权跨越多个国家的公司是一种被低估的机制。这些跨国公司在全球经济中占了很大的份额,但是公司级数据的普遍匮乏限制了我们对它们如何影响来源国和目的地国的理解。本文的一个贡献是使用创新的数据链接技术来扩大这些公司的数据可用性。第一章提供了有关贸易和跨国生产在经济冲击和交叉传递中的作用的第一个因果证据。商业周期的国家同步。本章利用2011年日本地震/海啸作为自然实验。调查发现,那些受到日本中间投入大量敞口的美国公司-通常是日本跨国公司的分支机构-在遭受冲击后经历了大幅的产出下降,与进口投入的下降大致成比例。对生产函数的结构估计揭示了进口和国内投入之间的实质性互补。这些结果表明,全球供应链比以前想象的要僵化。第二章将进口投入品的低生产弹性纳入了其他标准动态随机一般均衡模型中。如果将输入替代性的低水平应用于由跨国公司控制的贸易份额,则会在总体上产生影响。相对于缺少此类功能的模型,基准模型中的增值协同运动提高了11个百分点。该模型证实,除了财务和政策溢出外,真正的联系在商业周期同步中也起着重要作用。第三章介绍了跨国公司相对于美国经济中的国内和出口公司的其他特征。这些公司比其他公司更大,生产效率更高,资本密集度更高,工资更高。贸易和产出的相对模式为跨越国界的所有权动机提供了宝贵的指导。

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    Flaaen Aaron B.;

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  • 年度 2015
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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 en_US
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