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Asymptotically optimal methods for sequential change-point detection

机译:渐近最优的顺序变点检测方法

摘要

This thesis studies sequential change-point detection problems in different contexts. Our main results are as follows:- We present a new formulation of the problem of detecting a change of the parameter value in a one-parameter exponential family. Asymptotically optimal procedures are obtained.- We propose a new and useful definition of ?asymptotically optimal to first-order? procedures in change-point problems when both the pre-change distribution and the post-change distribution involve unknown parameters. In a general setting, we define such procedures and prove that they are asymptotically optimal.- We develop asymptotic theory for sequential hypothesis testing and change-point problems in decentralized decision systems and prove the asymptotic optimality of our proposed procedures under certain conditions.- We show that a published proof that the so-called modified Shiryayev-Roberts procedure is exactly optimal is incorrect. We also clarify the issues involved by both mathematical arguments and a simulation study. The correctness of the theorem remains in doubt.- We construct a simple counterexample to a conjecture of Pollak that states that certain procedures based on likelihood ratios are asymptotically optimal in change-point problems even for dependent observations.
机译:本文研究了在不同环境下的顺序变化点检测问题。我们的主要结果如下:-我们提出了一种新的提法,用于检测单参数指数族中参数值的变化。获得了渐近最优程序。-我们提出了一个新的有用的定义,即“渐近最优到一阶”。当变更前分布和变更后分布都涉及未知参数时,解决变更点问题中的过程。在一般情况下,我们定义了这样的过程并证明它们是渐近最优的。-我们开发了渐进理论用于顺序假设检验和分散决策系统中的变点问题,并证明了在某些条件下我们提出的过程的渐近最优性。-我们证明所谓的改良Shiryayev-Roberts程序完全最优的已发布证据是不正确的。我们还阐明了数学论证和模拟研究均涉及的问题。该定理的正确性尚有疑问。-我们构造了一个简单的Pollak猜想的反例,该猜想指出,即使对于从属观察,基于似然比的某些过程在变化点问题中也渐近最优。

著录项

  • 作者

    Mei Yajun;

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  • 年度 2003
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