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Revisiting the commodity curse: a financial perspective

机译:重新审视商品诅咒:财务角度

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摘要

We study the response of a three-sector commodity-exporter small open economy to a commodity price boom. When the economy has access to international borrowing and lending, a temporary commodity price boom brings about the standard wealth effect that stimulates domand and has long-run implications on the sectoral allocation of labor. If dynamic productivity gains are concentrated in the traded goods sector, the commodity boom crowds out the traded sector and delays convergence to the world technology frontier. Financial openness by stimulating current demand, amplifies the crowding out effect and may even lead to a growth trap, in which no resources are allocated to the traded sector. From a normative point of view, our analysis suggests that capital account management policies could be welfare improving in those circumstances.
机译:我们研究了三部门商品出口商小型开放经济对商品价格上涨的反应。当经济体能够获得国际借贷时,商品价格的短暂繁荣会带来标准财富效应,从而刺激国民,并对劳动力的部门分配产生长期影响。如果动态生产率的提高集中在贸易商品部门,那么商品繁荣将挤占贸易部门,并延迟向世界技术前沿的融合。通过刺激当前需求实现金融开放,扩大了挤出效应,甚至可能导致增长陷阱,其中没有资源分配给贸易部门。从规范的角度来看,我们的分析表明,在这种情况下,资本账户管理政策可以改善福利。

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