Probabilistic Assessment of Storage Capacity and Risk Associated with Carbon Storage

摘要

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is one of the technologies proposed to reduce CO2 emissions to the atmosphere from anthropogenic sources. This thesis examines different CO2 injection designs in order to evaluate which design maximizes profitability and storage capacity. It also determines which design minimizes the risks of leakage. A key feature of the analyses is that they incorporate the effects of uncertainty.Estimating the effects of CO2 injection is mainly determined by –(a) injection storage formation properties (storage formation thickness, areal extent, horizontal permeability and anisotropy) and (b) economic parameters (carbon price, capital and operating costs, discount rate and escalation rate). Since these factors are uncertain, the most appropriate way to analyse the effects of injection is to conduct probabilistic analyses that take into account both storage formation and economic parameters at the same time.I illustrate this process with a simple hypothetical, but representative CCS project. I determine the project’s profitability, storage capacity and risks of CO2 leakage for 5 development injection designs. I assign probability distributions to the following parameters -•Storage formation thickness•Storage formation areal extent•Horizontal permeability•Vertical to horizontal permeability ratio•Carbon price•Capital costs•Operating costs•Escalation rates•Discount ratesI use the storage formation property distributions to generate CO2 injection profiles and their associated probabilities. I then use these in a probabilistic economic model to generate a probability distribution of profitability, storage capacity and the risks of leakage.The analyses show the designs that optimise (a) storage capacity and (b) profitability. They also identify those that minimise leakage risks. The analyses are based on hypothetical, but representative injection possibilities. They illustrate the means by which industry can optimise the performance of CO2 injection in general.