Biosecurity as a trade barrier? An examination of the impact of quarantine policies on consumers

摘要

The primary focus of this thesis is an economic analysis of quarantine policies. The thesis examines two aspects of quarantine policy. First it analyses the impact of quarantine policies on consumers. Whilst the impact of quarantine policies on producers through reducing the threat of harmful pathogens is widely known. Their impact on the price and quality of imports has not yet been rigorously addressed. The second part of this thesis attempts to find an optimal quarantine policy when there is uncertainty. In a contribution to the sparse literature on the impacts on consumers of quarantine restrictions. a simple approach to analyzing the effects of these policies on the prices and quality of imported products is presented. We build on the approach of Aw and Roberts (1986) in using index number theory. This is used to extract quality changes from changes in the value of the imported bundle. Consistent with theory, an empirical application of the framework to mango imports for Australia, 1992-2005, reveals an increase in the quality of the imported bundle after the introduction of a new quarantine restriction. There is no consensus regarding the effect of reducing specific tariff rates on the quality of an imported bundle of goods. Through an exogenous quality model, it is shown that the quality of an imported bundle is higher under free trade relative to autarky. The more interesting and novel result focuses on the path from autarky to free trade. It is demonstrated that there is some non-zero level of tariff for which quality is maximised. Quarantine policies protect domestic industry from the effects of harmful exotic pathogens. However. quarantine policies also generate costs to domestic consumers through their impact on the prices of imported goods. Therefore, this thesis attempts to design an optimal quarantine policy for the importation of bananas from the Philippines in the presence of the exotic pathogen, Moko. A monte carlo simulation is used to obtain the optimal level of expenditure on border security policies. The main finding is that the importation of bananas is welfare enhancing in the presence of moderate quarantine expenditure. A novel result is that if policy is set for a "no risk/minimal risk" doctrine, that overall welfare is reduced but that there is a significant transfer of surplus from consumers to producers.