Beitrag zur Entwicklung eines Entscheidungsunterstützungssystems zur Bewertung und Planung von Hochwasserschutzmaßnahmen

摘要

Floods used to be a purely natural phenomenon. Due to man-made interferences to the natural hydrological cycle as well as increased human setting and accumulation of assets near water bodies, floods are becoming more a socio-economic problem. Politics, the sciences, flood protection agencies and affected people are confronted with the problem and new solutions are required. With the European Flood Management Directive (EU, 2007) a framework has been established, how to manage flood protection and mitigation in the member states of the European Union. The new German Federal Water Act (BMU WHG, 2009) translates these European framework regulations into German national legislation. Legal standards for the evaluation of the existing flood protection and for the development of flood mitigation plans can be summarised as: • application of a risk based approach on a catchment area scale; • consideration of existing flood protection measures, as well as the area specific morphology and hydrology; • consideration of different aspects of flood consequences; • definition of a general flood mitigation strategy, which consists of all types of flood mitigation measures as avoiding, protection and prevention.The practical realisation of the legal standards is a major task for the flood protection agencies. The development of methods and computer based tools to support this process is the major task for the sciences. This dissertation develops a computer-based decision support system, called PROMAIDES (Protection Measure against Inundation Decision Support), for a risk based evaluation of the existing flood protection and a testing of flood mitigation measures on the scale of a catchment area. Therefore PROMAIDES comprises various methods for flood risk analysis including a reliability analysis, a hydrodynamic analysis and an analysis of consequences of a flood event. A new practical approach for the determination of flood risk on a catchment area scale is developed, implemented and applied. In addition, Multiple Attribute Decision Making-methods for the ranking of flood mitigation measures are implemented. In combination with a Graphical User Interface for a user-friendly exchange of information between computer and user, PROMAIDES is a broad and powerful tool for the decision support in flood mitigation and flood management.