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Trade Structure and the Choice of Exchange Rate Regime in East Asia : A Theoretical Consideration

机译:东亚贸易结构与汇率制度选择:理论思考。

摘要

Intra-regional trade in intermediate goods has become an important feature of trade and production in East Asia. In this article, I consider the implication of this intra-regional trade in intermediate goods to the choice of exchange rate regime for East Asian countries. Towards this end, I build a three-country New Open Economy Macroeconomic model which incorporates intra-regional trade in intermediate goods along with trade in final goods. The simulation results show that, in the presence of intra-regional trade in intermediate goods, in addition to the linkage in consumption (or aggregate demand), there emerges a new and important linkage between East Asian countries: that in production. In general, the optimal choice of exchange rate regime depends on the price setting behavior of firms in domestic and foreign markets. In the most realistic case in which the US dollar is used as the invoicing currency in trade, the optimal exchange rate regime, in terms of trade balance stabilizing, for an East Asian country is a basket peg composed by the US dollar and the Japanese yen in which the weight assigned to the US dollar is dominantly high.
机译:中间产品的区域内贸易已经成为东亚贸易和生产的重要特征。在本文中,我考虑了这种中间产品的区域内贸易对东亚国家汇率制度选择的影响。为此,我建立了一个三国新开放经济宏观经济模型,该模型将中间产品的区域内贸易与最终产品的贸易结合在一起。模拟结果表明,在存在中间产品区域内贸易的情况下,除了消费(或总需求)之间的联系外,东亚国家之间还出现了一种新的重要联系:生产方面的联系。通常,汇率制度的最佳选择取决于企业在国内外市场的价格设定行为。在最现实的情况下,将美元用作贸易的计价货币,就稳定贸易平衡而言,最佳汇率制度对东亚国家来说是由美元和日元组成的篮子钉其中分配给美元的权重占主导地位。

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