Projected impacts on heat-related mortality from changes in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change

摘要

The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the importance of changing temperature variabilityudwith climate change in assessments of future heat-related mortality. Previous studies have only consideredudchanges in the mean temperature. Here we present estimates of heat-related mortality resulting from climateudchange for six cities: Boston, Budapest, Dallas, Lisbon, London and Sydney. They are based on climateudchange scenarios for the 2080s (2070-2099) and the temperature-mortality (t-m) models constructed andudvalidated in Gosling et al. (2007). We propose a novel methodology for assessing the impacts of climateudchange on heat-related mortality that considers both changes in the mean and variability of the temperatureuddistribution.