High-technology elements for thin-film photovoltaic applications :a demand-supply outlook on the basis of current energy and PV market growths scenarios

摘要

On the basis of current energy and photovoltaic market outlooks and scenarios, the total growth rate potential of thin-film photovoltaic (PV) techniques have been analysed and calculated. For the European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA) Advanced Scenario [1] total thin-film PV annual production values of 2.4 GWp for 2010, 25 GWp for 2020 and 132 GWp for 2030, were calculated. These values were used to estimate individual annual production for each thin-film technology in order to predict the future thin-film PV material needs for indium, selenium, tellurium, germanium and gallium. Considering global reserve and refinery data, this work also provides estimations on the current static depletion time of these elements. Such estimations are of course an approximation but emphasise that some of the considered elements are highly constrained when assuming steady production rates. This is particularly the case for indium, for which we calculated a static depletion time of 22 years. Selenium and tellurium could be also in danger of running out soon if their consumption increases. This implies that additional efforts are needed in the exploration and evaluation of mineral deposits which can supply these scarce elements such as the deposits of the Iberian Pyrite Belt.