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Bias in mixtures of normal distributions and joint modeling of longitudinal and time-to-event data with monotonic change curves

机译:具有单调变化曲线的正态分布混合物和纵向和事件数据的联合建模的偏差

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摘要

Estimating parameters in a mixture of normal distributions dates back to the 19th century when Pearson originally considered data of crabs from the Bay of Naples. Since then, many real world applications of mixtures have led to various proposed methods for studying similar problems. Among them, maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) and the continuous empirical characteristic function (CECF) methods have drawn the most attention. However, the performance of these competing estimation methods has not been thoroughly studied in the literature and conclusions have not been consistent in published research. In this article, we review this classical problem with a focus on estimation bias. An extensive simulation study is conducted to compare the estimation bias between the MLE and CECF methods over a wide range of disparity values. We use the overlapping coefficient (OVL) to measure the amount of disparity, and provide a practical guideline for estimation quality in mixtures of normal distributions. Application to an ongoing multi-site Huntington disease study is illustrated for ascertaining cognitive biomarkers of disease progression.We also study joint modeling of longitudinal and time-to-event data and discuss pattern-mixture and selection models, but focus on shared parameter models, which utilize unobserved random effects in order to u22joinu22 a marginal longitudinal data model and marginal survival model in order to assess an internal time-dependent covariateu27s effect on time-to-event. The marginal models used in the analysis are the Cox Proportional Hazards model and the Linear Mixed model, and both of these models are covered in some detail before defining joints models and describing the estimation process. Joint modeling provides a modeling framework which accounts for correlation between the longitudinal data and the time-to-event data, while also accounting for measurement error in the longitudinal process, which previous methods failed to do. Since it has been shown that bias is incurred, and this bias is proportional to the amount of measurement error, utilizing a joint modeling approach is preferred. Our setting is also complicated by monotone degeneration of the internal covariate considered, and so a joint model which utilizes monotone B-Splines to recover the longitudinal trajectory and a Cox Proportional Hazards (CPH) model for the time-to-event data is proposed. The monotonicity constraints are satisfied via the Projected Newton Raphson Algorithm as described by Cheng et al., 2012, with the baseline hazard profiled out of the $Q$ function in each M-step of the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm used for optimizing the observed likelihood. This method is applied to assess Total Motor Scoreu27s (TMS) ability to predict Huntington Disease motor diagnosis in the Biological Predictors of Huntingtonu27s Disease study (PREDICT-HD) data.
机译:当皮尔逊最初是从那不勒斯湾认为螃蟹的数据正态分布日期的混合参数估计可追溯至19世纪。从那时起,许多现实世界的混合物的应用已导致对研究类似问题的各种建议的方法。其中,最大似然估计(MLE)和连续经验特征函数(中国出口商品交易会)的方法已最受关注。然而,这些竞争的估计方法的性能并没有得到彻底的文献研究和结论尚未发表的研究是一致的。在这篇文章中,我们回顾重点放在估计偏差这个经典问题。一个广泛的模拟研究被传导到MLE和CECF方法之间的估计偏差在宽范围的差异值的比较。我们使用重叠系数(OVL)来测量的视差量,并且在正常分布的混合物提供一种用于估计质量一个实用指南。示出了用于确定疾病progression.We认知生物标志物还研究纵向和时间 - 事件数据的联合建模和讨论关于共享参数模型图案混合物和选择模式,而是聚焦到正在进行的多站点亨廷顿病研究中的应用,其利用以评估对时间 - 事件的内部时间依赖性协变量 u27s效果为了 u22join U22的边缘纵向数据模型和边际存活模型未观测到的随机效应。在分析中使用的边际模型是Cox比例风险模型和线性混合模型,并且这两种模式的限定关节的模型和描述估计过程之前被覆盖在一些细节。联合建模提供了一种建模框架占该纵向数据和时间 - 事件数据之间的相关性,而在纵向的过程,以前的方法未能这样做也占测量误差。由于已经表明,偏压发生,并且该偏压是正比于测量误差的量,利用关节建模方法是优选的。我们的设置也由所考虑的内部协变量的单调退化复杂化,所以其利用单调B样条曲线,以恢复纵向轨迹和用于时间 - 事件数据的Cox比例风险(CPH)模型中的关节模型。如Cheng等人描述的单调性约束经由投影牛顿拉夫逊算法满足。,2012年,在用于优化的期望最大化(EM)算法的每个M-步骤中的$ Q $函数的异形出基线风险观察到的可能性。这种方法适用于评估电机总分数 u27s(TMS)来预测亨廷顿舞蹈病马达诊断在Huntington的生物预测因子能力 u27s疾病研究(PREDICT-HD)数据。

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    Spencer Lourens;

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