Real-time flood control operations of a cascade reservoir system under emergency conditions can reduce the social and economic loss caused by natural disasters. This paper proposes a risk-based model for real-time flood control operation of reservoirs under emergency conditions and uncertainties. The proposed model consists of three modules: emergency scenarios establishing, Monte Carlo simulations, and risk analysis. The emergency scenarios considered are earthquakes, extreme floods and failure of the spillways of a reservoir. The uncertainty factor considered is the forecast error of reservoir inflows, arising from model structural uncertainty and parameter estimating. The Monte Carlo simulations conduct the real-time flood control operation of reservoirs considering the proposed emergency events and uncertainties. The module of risk analysis performs the assessment of the operation schedules and calculates the risk of dam overtopping, based on the results from Monte Carlo simulations. The proposed model is applied to a cascade reservoir system in the upper reaches of Daduhe river basin in China. The results show that the maximum initial water level of the Shuangjiangkou reservoir is 2447 m a.s.l. (meters above sea level) using the release capacity model and is 2444.5 m a.s.l. using the command model under the scenario of upstream dam break. The integrated risk of the reservoir increases with the initial water level and the uncertainty degree of the reservoir inflows. The decision-makers can choose the operation models according to the actual initial water level of the reservoir under different emergency scenarios.
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机译:紧急情况下级联水库系统的实时防洪操作可以减少自然灾害引起的社会和经济损失。本文提出了一种基于风险的储层在紧急情况和不确定性下的水库实时防洪操作模型。所提出的模型由三个模块组成:紧急情况建立,蒙特卡罗模拟和风险分析。考虑的紧急情况是地震,极端洪水和水库溢洪道的失败。所考虑的不确定性因素是储层流入的预测误差,由模型结构不确定性和参数估计产生。 Monte Carlo仿真考虑提出的紧急事件和不确定性,进行水库的实时防洪操作。风险分析模块执行了对操作时间表的评估,并根据蒙特卡罗模拟的结果计算大坝泛型的风险。所提出的模型应用于中国大陆河流域上游的级联储层系统。结果表明,双江口水库的最大初始水位是2447米A.L. (海平面上方米)使用释放容量模型,是2444.5米A.L.在上游大坝休息场景下使用命令模型。储存器的综合风险随着初始水位和水库流入的不确定性程度增加。决策者可以根据水库的实际初始水位在不同的紧急情况下选择操作模型。
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