Coping with Severe Sustained Drought in the Southwestern United States

摘要

This document reports on the second phase of a study of the impacts of apotential severe, sustained drought in the Colorado River Basin. Taking the present-day configuration of the storage and diversion structures and the economic conditions in the Basin as the base-point, the general objectives of the study are three: first to assess the hydrologic impacts of a Severe Sustained Drought (SSD); second, to forecast the economic, social, and environmental impact on the southwestern U.S.; and finally, to assess alternative institutional arrangements for coping with a SSD. The evaluation of impacts and policies was conducted with two distinct modeling approaches. One involved a hydrologic-economic optimization approach. The second was a simulation-gaming approach that allowed 'players' representing each basin state to interact in a real-time decisionmaking mode in response to the unfolding drought. Several significant findings are noted.