De Scenarioverkenner, Versie 1.2. Deel 4: Het Vervoervraagmodel (The Scenario Explorer Version 1.2, Part 4: The Model for Transport Demand).

摘要

The Scenario Explorer is a model for nationwide travel demand and supply forecasting. The model combines scenario building, system dynamics and strategic transport modeling techniques. The model facilitates experimentation with alternative policies and perceptions on causalities within the Traffic and Transportation System. It is based on the 'modeling as learning' approach and is intended to stimulate experimentation in policy thinking and to get insight in future developments in travel demand and system behavior at a strategic level. The approach chosen is hybrid in a methodological sense in that it can deal both with relationships that have been validated empirically and with subjective perceptions of the system of the analyst or policy maker. This part 4 (the model for transport demand) of the final report on the ScenarioExplorer version 1.2 offers a detailed description of the general approach and specific elements of the model for transportation demand, as well as the basic data that is used as input. A general introduction to the ScenarioExplorer, its objectives, structure, performance and application, as well as detailed information on the module to build scenarios, can be found in parts 1 to 3 of this final report.