Predicting the Need for Newly Hired Teachers in the United States to 2008-09

摘要

There will be a need for many newly hired teachers in the United States over thenext ten years as large numbers of teachers are expected to retire and enrollments are expected to increase. We examine this need using an algebraic model with no econo-metric analysis. We use age-specific continuation rates of teachers from several different Schools and Staffing Surveys (SASS) of the National Center for Education Statistics to predict how many teachers will continue teaching from one year to another. The demand for teachers is taken as exogenous and several scenarios are examined. We assume that the supply will meet the demand and that the age dis-tribution of new teachers will be the same as the 1993-94 SASS distribution. Depending on the assumptions made, projections for the number of newly hired public school teachers needed by 200809 ranges from 1.7 million to 2.7 million. Some of these newly hired teachers will be needed to replace those leaving the profession and others will be needed as enrollments continue to increase.