Risk Analysis Based CWR Track Buckling Safety Evaluations

摘要

As part of the Federal Railroad Administrations (FRA) track systems researchprogram, the US DOTS Volpe Center is conducting analytic and experimental investigations to evaluate track lateral strength and stability limits for improved safety and performance. This paper deals with a part of this research addressing the development of a comprehensive CWR buckling safety analysis which includes a risk analysis based approach for prediction of probable number of buckles on a given track. These risk based buckling evaluations are particularly useful for dealing with statistical variability in the track parameters. The risk approach can provide economic options for track maintenance to achieve the desirable buckling strength. The buckling risk methodology and the statistical parametric descriptors are discussed and a buckling risk analysis model is presented with illustrative examples. The model also provides a computational scheme for the determination of buckling probability as a function of maximum rail temperature when the key influencing parameters of track lateral resistance, lateral alignment defect and rail neutral temperature are given as statistical variables. The risk based approach as well as the previously developed deterministic approaches in CWR-BUCKLE and CWR-INDY are all being integrated in a single new computer program called CWR-SAFE. CWR-SAFE is a Windows based software analysis package for a comprehensive buckling safety evaluation for use by both the railroad industry and the research community.