Transmission Capacity Assessment by Probabilistic Planning: An Approach

摘要

The available transfer capacity of a transmission route is traditionally limited by deterministic security constraints. More efficient and flexible network utilization could be achieved with probabilistic planning methods. This report introduces a simple and practical probabilistic approach for transfer limit and risk assessment. The method is based on the economical benefit and risk predictions. It uses also the existing result of deterministic data and it could be used side by side with the deterministic method. The basic concept and necessary equations for expected risks of various market players have been derived for further developments. The aim of this work is to determine the costs of faults of the transmission network to the participants of electricity markets. Costs of altered power flows because of electricity markets are also discussed. Also a simple method for probabilistic transfer capacity assessment is presented.