Assessing Low-Carbon Fuel Technology Innovation Through a Technology Innovation System Approach.

摘要

Addressing anthropogenic climate change will require a variety of novel technology solutions. Where will these solutions come from, and how can we foster their development? To answer these questions, it is important to delve into the process of technology innovation. We need to better understand how technological transitions happen, and we need to figure out how innovation can be directed. While the existing work on technology innovation is abundant, the innovation process largely remains a “black box,” shrouded in mystery. Energy models that incorporate innovation concepts, such as experience curves, fail to consider the fundamental processes that drive innovation. More nuanced approaches to innovation, however, are largely qualitative and difficult to model or to employ. This makes it hard to draw objective conclusions, or to make predictions about technologies moving forward. This dissertation research establishes a set of methodological approaches to better break in to this innovation black box, aiding in the quantification of the more qualitative approaches to innovation. These methods are applied to better examine low-carbon technology innovation in transportation. Specifically, this dissertation looks at biofuel innovation and the more recent diffusion of electric vehicles.