Development of ASHRAM: A New Human-Reliability-Analysis Method for Aviation Safety

摘要

The primary purpose of the Aviation Safety Human Reliability Analysis Method, or ASHRAM is to predict plausible aviation-accident scenarios before they occur. An underlying premise of ASHRAM, is that many significant human errors can occur as a result of a combination of situational factors, or error-forcing context that can trigger cognitive error mechanisms in personnel, which can lead to the execution of unsafe acts. The method allows aviation researchers to analyze accidents and incidents retrospectively, by answering questions and filling in forms, or prospectively, by systematically generating families of plausible scenarios based on a small set of initiators. ASHRAM is packaged in a brief, readable format, with step-by-step instructions, and with real-world examples so that it can be utilized by a variety of researchers, modelers, analysts, trainers, and pilots with a variety of backgrounds. This paper summarizes parts, but not all of the ASHRAM project technical report, DE2001-773843. First, the cognitive model will be described, followed by a summary of the procedures to perform retrospective and prospective analyses. Conclusions will address unique benefits to be derived from ASHRAM usage and appraises potential future directions for the technique.