EU:n Yksipuolinen Paeaestoejen Rajoittaminen ja Kehittyneiden Maiden Yhteinen Paeaestoejen Rajoittaminen. Vaikutukset Suomeen Arvioituna TIMES Mallilla (Unilateral Emission Reductions of the EU and Multilateral Emission Reductions of the Developed Countri

摘要

This report assesses the impact of the unilateral greenhouse gas emission reductions proposed by the EU on the structure of European and Finnish energy systems with TIMES models. The two models used are techno-economical energy system models including an extensive description of technologies on energy production and consumption. The models derive the sectoral energy demand from given economic projections and calculate the optimal way of satisfying the energy demand through market equilibrium. The basis for EU wide calculations was the Common POLES-IMAGE economic scenarios which project a GDP growth of 2.4 % p.a. until 2020. A sensitivity analysis was conducted with a lower economic growth projection. The results indicated that a reduction of 20 % compared to 1990 emission levels by 2020 would lead to most reductions being conducted at the electricity sector. The consumption of coal in electricity generation would decrease considerably. In the long term some of the natural gas based production would incorporate carbon capture and storage (CCS), and the use of wind power would grow substantially.