Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook, September 2011: Amidst Drought and High Feed Prices Domestically, Exports Flourishing.

摘要

Drought conditions continue to result in Southern cows going to slaughter and Southern calves going to feedlots. Also resulting from the drought, corn, and hay prices are increasing as cow and fed cattle prices slip. Despite deteriorating feed-fed cattle price relationships, feeder cattle prices appear mostly steady. The exchange rate continues to hamper imports of beef to the United States, while U.S. beef exports remain at markedly higher levels, a result of herd liquidation and a larger exportable supply as well as of the exchange rate. Mexican cattle imports are 20 percent higher through July; however, declines in Canadian cattle imports continue to offset the increases in Mexican cattle imports. High feed costs are expected to reduce the weights at which live hogs are marketed for slaughter for the remainder of the year and through 2012. Lower slaughter weights are forecast to marginally reduce pork production during this period. China was a major buyer of U.S. pork products in July. Total pork exports in July were almost 18 percent higher than a year ago. The U.S. broiler meat production estimate for third-quarter 2011 was increased by 25 million pounds to 9.4 billion pounds, down only 1 percent from the previous year. While the number of chicks being placed for growout is down significantly from a year earlier, average live bird weights at slaughter have continued to be much higher than during the same period in 2010. Over the last 5 weeks, an average of 162 million broiler chicks were placed weekly for growout, down 5 percent from a year earlier. Turkey meat production in July was 448 million pounds, down 4 percent from July 2010. This was the first monthly decline in U.S. turkey meat production in 2011, and over the first 7 months of 2011, turkey meat production was 4.1 percent higher than during the same period in 2010.