Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook, May 2011: Weather Events Affect Cattle Markets

摘要

This monthly report, presented in a newsletter format, provides current intelligence and forecasts the effects of changing conditions in the U.S. livestock, dairy, and poultry sectors. Topics include current production, consumption, trade, prices received, and more. Periodically, special reports on specific commodity issues also are released in this series. Weather-related events are affecting cattle and beef sectors across the board. Cool wet weather in major corn-producing areas has resulted in decreased demand for grilling cuts and has hampered field crop work, raising concerns about future feed prices. Drought and fires have reduced the availability of pasture in areas of the Southern and Southwestern United States, contributing to continued high rates of cow slaughter. U.S. beef exports for 2011 are forecast at 2.48 billion pounds, 8-percent growth above 2010. Record-high hog prices are expected to more than offset sharply higher feed costs in 2011. Forecasts for 2012 show a 1.4-percent increase in commercial pork production and little change in average hog prices. Broiler production is expected to increase about 2 percent in 2012, after an increase of 1.4 percent in 2011. High feed prices, both this year and next, will pressure producer profits. Cow numbers will show a slight decline into 2012, but higher milk output per cow will continue to boost production in both the current year and next year.