A Decision Model for Determining Document Printing Quantities

摘要

This report summarizes the research leading to a set of rules for deciding in what quantities to print the AD documents controlled by the Defense Documentation Center that are distributed by the Clearinghouse for Federal Scientific and Technical Information (CFSTI). Print quantities of 25, 50, 75, 100 and 200 documents are considered, as well as the alternative of single copy reproduction. The decision rules are based upon the premise that at any time during the 24 months after announcement in the U. S. Government Research and Development Reports of CFSTI it is possible to predict the remaining demand which will occur during the 24 month period. A sample of 2038 documents was used to establish the rules and they were then tested against an independent sample of 396 documents. From the independent sample, it was estimated that the average cost per document under the new procedures for the two years after announcement in the USGRDR will be $36.96, compared to $51.81 under rules in effect prior to the beginning of the study, a saving of $14.85 per document. The same sample showed that the minimum cost which could have been attained under perfect prediction of demand was $34.62, so the recommended procedures are near optimum.