The Probabilistic Estimation of Construction Performance in Hard Rock Tunnels.

摘要

This report concerns the development of a computer-based simulation model which can be used to evaluate costs and risks associated with hard rock tunneling. This report is the 4th in a series of reports dealing with this subject. The report examines conventional cost estimating procedures and concludes that there are two major inadequacies which exist, (1) the inability to account for the uncertainty in suspected geologic conditions at the tunnel depth and (2) the inability to quantify the effect of uncertain geology and the effect of the additional uncertainty in productivity of men and equipment on the performance of a construction strategy. The model employs techniques of probability and simulation to avoid these two shortcomings.