Multifamily Failures. Volume 1. A Quantitative Analysis of Financial Failure in Multifamily Projects: A Disaggregated Comparative Analysis

摘要

Two earlier reports presented preliminary results of a multivariate analysis of financial failure in a national sample of 618 multifamily subsidized housing projects and the findings of a series of case studies of a small number of both failing and nonfailing projects. This report aims to bridge the gap between the national sample analysis and the cases by disaggregating the national data and examining failure behavior at the regional level and also by forms of sponsorship. A brief reconsideration of the logic underlying the organization of explanatory variables is provided to establish the basis for grouping the variables used in the multivariate analysis. Summary statistics are also examined on failure and other project variables across regions and sponsorship types. Finally, simple correlations between alternative definitions of failure and the possible explanatory variables are examined in relation to several hypotheses about the failure process. Overall, locational variables (i.e., urban core, nonurban core) exhibit substantial consistency and mixed levels of association with failure. Neighborhood physical and safety factors also appear correlated. Broader locational indicators and market conditions, as measured by the sample data, are only modestly related to failure. Although project social characteristics correlated strongly with failure, project physical characteristics did not, a disappointment in light of the variety of hypotheses linking physical design to project performance. Certain tenant characteristics, such as the percentage of elderly residents, correlated with failure, as did a project's nonprofit as opposed to profit - oriented sponsorship. However, some of the highest correlations occurred among the management variables: experience, as indicated by management of more than one project, was consistently negatively correlated with failure, as was continuity of management since occupancy for nonprofit projects. Tabular data are included.