On Boll Weevil Eradication -An Analysis of a Proposed Policy Using AGRIMOD.

摘要

Analysis of the impacts of a proposed national program to eradicate the boll weevil on the U.S. agricultural sector over the period 1975to 1990was the objective of the study. The specific assumptions were that eradication is technically feasible and that the proposed eradication program will achieve its stated objectives. The complex role of cotton in U.S. agriculture required the development of a comprehensive modeling system that was based on AGRIMOD, a dynamic simulation model of the U.S. food production system. The analysis was accomplished by simulating four scenarios;one a baseline (current boll weevil management) scenario and three eradication ones considering alternative effects of the eradication program on cotton yields and production cost. The conclusions illuminate regional differences due to differences in level of infestation,alternative crops,cultivation practices and production costs. By far the most significant effects on cotton consumption,production and price were due,not to eradication,but to the effect of rising energy costs on synthetic fibers,on inputs to and costs of production and,therefore,on the behavior of the total agricultural system.