Vulnerability Assessments in Support of the Climate Ready Estuaries Program: A Novel Appraoch Using Expert Judgment. Volume I. Results for the Massachusetts Bays Program

摘要

The purpose of this project was twofold: to conduct a vulnerability assessment using a novel, expert judgment approach based on expert elicitation methods, and to analyze the implications for adaptation planning. This was not a comprehensive vulnerability assessment for the whole estuary but rather a proof of concept for a new type of assessment exercise, using two key ecosystem processes of salt marsh and mudflat ecosystems as demonstration studies. This was accomplished through a series of steps to: (1) identify key management goals and ecosystem processes essential to meeting those goals; (2) create conceptual models of selected ecosystem processes; (3) assess ecosystem process sensitivities to climate change; (4) consider resulting vulnerabilities with respect to management goals; and (5) explore implications for adaptation planning. Steps 1-2 were used to define the scope of the assessment, while steps 3-5 comprise the vulnerability assessment itself.