Mathematical Modeling of a Sociological and Hydrologic Decision System,

摘要

The general goal was to develop a functional model of the sociological and related hydrologic elements in flood control decision-making. Conceptual system models were developed for the hydrologic system and for the sociological system. The sociological variables were identified as they related to the steps in the process of the model. Following the conceptual decision process model the social elements of the model were calibrated from data obtained from field studies and mathematical equations were developed and tested. Finally simulations of the process were run. After adjustments were made the model was found to function. Several methodological factors were devised to make the model more realistic and operable. These were: (1) distortion factors, (2) importance factors, (3) acceptance functions, (4) expansion effect,and (5) threshold levels. These concepts permit the model to adjust to changes in social behavior related to the social structure of the decision process. (Portions of this document are not fully legible)