End Stage Renal Disease (ESRD): Resource Forecasting by Predictive Model; Executive Summary and Final Report

摘要

To assist health planners anticipate the number of end stage renal disease (ESRD) patients who will require governmentally-sponsored health services, the project team developed models to forecast future patient census and resource requirements. These models, based on a selection of population states whose membership could be mathematically manipulated through time, were developed with the cooperation of Missouri-based health agencies responsible for ESRD planning and review and were extensively tested against historical state and national data. Model forecasts, although subject to error, demonstrated the feasibility of using such forecasting devices in local ESRD planning. The team also examined potential benefits of the use of advanced models for more refined forecasts of ESRD patient care delivery system requirements.