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Economic Analysis of Effects of Business Cycles on the Economy of Cities: Industrial Startups and Closures during the Business Cycle. Policy Guides for America's Cities and Suburbs

机译:商业周期对城市经济影响的经济学分析:经济周期中的工业启动与关闭。美国城市和郊区政策指南

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This paper reviews studies that have used the Dun and Bradstreet Market Indicators (DMI) file to analyze employment changes; examines hypotheses that explain city / suburb differences in the business cycle; and analyzes establishments in three industries (machine tool, electronic components, and motor vehicle) on the basis of DMI files for 1973, 1975, 1979, and 1982. Results indicate that the machine tool and motor vehicle industries are decentralizing and that the electronic components industry is centralizing. Further, data indicate that uneven metropolitan growth is explained by uneven birth and expansion rates; growth rates rise during the expansions and fall during the recessions. This cyclical employment pattern apparently results primarily from fluctuations in establishment births and deaths rather than from expansions and contractions in employment at existing plants. Findings suggest that the pattern of long - run growth differs from that of short - run fluctuations. Metropolitan areas that exhibit strong long - run growth are determined to do so because of high rates of new business formations,high net expansions, and low closing rates. Four tables and 20 references are included.

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