Satellite Observed Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) Propagation Characteristics and a 3-12 Hour Heavy Precipitation Forecast Index

摘要

One of the greatest challenges of an operational meteorologist is predicting the direction and speed of movement of Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS). In most cases, propagation is the controlling influence on the movement of MCSs. The type of propagation (backward or forward) often determines the amount of rainfall that occurs from a MCS. The memorandum briefly discusses previous concepts on thunderstorm propagation. Discussion and pertinent examples of MCS propagation characteristics observed in the GOES satellite imagery are presented. Two types of satellite propagation characteristics are identified. A short-range forecasting technique for expected storm propagation is described. Finally, a preliminary 3-12 hour heavy precipitation forecast index for MCSs is presented.