World Raw Sugar Prices: The Influence of Brazilian Costs of Production and World Surplus/Deficit Measures.

摘要

From the perspective of U.S. sugar policy, there is increased interest in world sugar prices because world prices have been above domestic price support levels since 2009 and are forecast by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development to remain above current support levels through 2021. Understanding the dynamics that affect the world price of sugar is the new imperative for U.S. sugar policy. There are three basic determinants of medium- to long-term world raw sugar pricing. The first is the long-term equilibrium relationship between world raw sugar prices and costs of producing sugar in Brazil, the worlds largest sugar producer and exporter. An important effect on costs operates through the Brazilian currency exchange rate with the U.S. dollar. The second is the effect of medium-term world sugar supply-demand imbalances on pricing. Two important measures from the U.S. Department of Agricultures world sugar Production, Supply, and Distribution (PSD) database are derived to show that relative stockholding has an important effect on the sensitivity of the world sugar prices to changes in overall world sugar availability. The third determinant is a risk-related component: how current prices are affected by errors in forecasting supply and demand balances of previous years due to unanticipated events. The world sugar price includes a premium when there is a recent history of sugar deficits larger than what was initially predicted and conversely, a discount when there were surpluses larger than predicted.