Theory of Possibility and Fuzzy Sets: New Ideas for Risk Analysis and Decision Making

摘要

Risk analysis and decision making methods are as yet relatively unknown concepts in the construction industry. As time goes on, construction projects become increasingly complex and in most cases they have a number of different parties involved. This is accompanied by tight time schedules and rigid overall cost limits. In view of this and the continual growth in technical complexity, increasing attention must be given to a quality and safety approach. The report mainly concentrates on the role of the consultant in the design of construction schemes or, to an even greater degree, on the analytical process in design. The report concentrates on methods based on the theory of fuzzy sets. The theory which was proposed in the middle of the sixties may be seen as an alternative to the theory of probability, particularly as regards the 'subjective' theory of probability.