GIS (Geographical Information System) Based Simulation Approach to Predict System Responses to Climatic Change

摘要

The objective of the project is to simulate how rice yield might be affected by stratospheric ozone depletion and the greenhouse effect. A simple ecosystem model has been developed to simulate carbon and nitrogen dynamics in rice paddies in Asia. The model includes rice plants, weeds, insects, pathogens and nitrogen fixers. The paper discusses the process of developing the model in a spatial context by incorporating the capabilities of a computerized geographical information system (GIS). It highlights the difficulties encountered in using experimental data to calibrate the model and regional climatic data as external variables. The paper also shows how the same approach can be used to simulate wetland system dynamics and thus stimulate comparisons between natural and managed wetland systems.