Sustainability transition. Beyond conventional development

摘要

This paper synthesizes findings of the first phase in SEI's PoleStar Project - a project aimed at developing long-term strategies and policies for sustainable development. Taking a global and long-range perspective, the paper aims to describe a theoretical framework for addressing sustainability, to identify emerging issues and outline directions for future action. The paper begins by setting today's development and environmental challenges in historical context, and describing the scenario method for envisioning and evaluating alternative futures, and identifying propitious areas for policy and action. It next summarizes a detailed scenario based on conventional development assumptions, and discusses the implications of this scenario for demographic and economic patterns, energy and water resources, land resources and agriculture, and pollution loads and the environment to the year 2050. The conventional scenario relies in part on the sectorally-oriented work discussed in Papers 3 through 6 of the PoleStar Project report series, and makes use of the PoleStar System, software designed for integrated resource, environment and socio-economic accounting and scenario analysis (described in Paper 2). The paper then examines the critical risks to social, resource and environmental systems lying ahead on the conventional development path. Finally, the paper surveys the requirements for sustainability across a number of policy dimensions, and raises key questions for the future. The PoleStar Project is proceeding to examine a range of alternative development scenarios, in the context of the work of the regionally-diverse Global Scenario Group, convened by SEI. The hope remains to offer wise counsel for a transition to an equitable, humane and sustainable future for the global community. 144 refs, 30 figs, 9 tabs