Implications of the Putnam software equation on confidence levels for project success

摘要

The implications of assumed powerlaw relationships among size, duration, and effort on the probability that a given software project will be completed within its estimated schedule and manpower resources are investigated. Software development tasks are treated as sample point in a probability space characterized by three random variables: size, duration, and resource expenditure. The completion confidence factor is then computed. The most astonishing conclusion is the low confidence factor of the average project, significantly less than 25%. This low confidence factor is the results of correlation of the project duration and work effort by a tradeoff relationship referred to as "Putnam's software equation".