Abrupt Decline in the Arctic Winter Sea Ice Cover

摘要

Maximum ice extents in the Arctic in 2005 and 2006 have been observed to be significantly lower (by about 6%) than the average of those of previous years starting in 1979. Since the winter maxima had been relatively stable with the trend being only about -1.5% per decade (compared to about -10% per decade for the perennial ice area), this is a significant development since signals from greenhouse warming are expected to be most prominent in winter. Negative ice anomalies are shown to be dominant in 2005 and 2006 especially in the Arctic basin and correlated with winds and surface temperature anomalies during the same period. Progressively increasing winter temperatures in the central Arctic starting in 1997 is observed with significantly higher rates of increase in 2005 and 2006. The Atlantic Oscillation (AO) indices correlate weakly with the sea ice and surface temperature anomaly data but may explain the recent shift in the perennial ice cover towards the western region. Results suggest that the trend in winter ice is finally in the process of catching up with that of the summer ice cover.