Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenetic Processes during SOP-3 NAMMA in the GEOS-5 Global Data Assimilation and Forecast System

摘要

This article investigates the role of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) in tropical cyclogenetic processes associated with a non-developing and a developing African easterly wave observed during the Special Observation Period (SOP-3) phase of the 2006 NASA African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (NAMMA). The two waves are chosen because both interact heavily with Saharan air. A global data assimilation and forecast system, the NASA GEOS-5, is being run to produce a set of high-quality global analyses, inclusive of all observations used operationally but with denser satellite information. In particular, following previous works by the same Authors, the quality-controlled data from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) used to produce these analyses have a better coverage than the one adopted by operational centers. From these improved analyses, two sets of 31 5-day high resolution forecasts, at horizontal resolutions of both half and quarter degrees, are produced. Results show that very steep moisture gradients are associated with the SAL in forecasts and analyses even at great distance from the Sahara. In addition, a thermal dipole (warm above, cool below) is present in the non-developing case. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) show that aerosol optical thickness is higher in the non-developing case. Altogether, results suggest that radiative effect of dust may play some role in producing a thermal structure less favorable to cyclogenesis. Results also indicate that only global horizontal resolutions on the order of 20-30 kilometers can capture the large-scale transport and the fine thermal structure of the SAL, inclusive of the sharp moisture gradients, reproducing the effect of tropical cyclone suppression which has been hypothesized by previous authors from observational and regional modeling perspectives. These effects cannot be fully represented at lower resolutions. Global resolution of a quarter of a degree is a minimum critical threshold to investigate Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis from a global modeling perspective.