China's Pathways to Achieving 40%-45% Reduction in CO2 Emissions per Unit of GDP in 2020: Sectoral Outlook and Assessment of Savings Potential.

摘要

Achieving China's goal of reducing its carbon intensity (CO(sub 2) per unit of GDP) by 40% to 45% percent below 2005 levels by 2020 will require the strengthening and expansion of energy efficiency policies across the buildings, industries and transport sectors. This study uses a bottom-up, end-use model and two scenarios -- an enhanced energy efficiency (E3) scenario and an alternative maximum technically feasible energy efficiency improvement (Max Tech) scenario - to evaluate what policies and technical improvements are needed to achieve the 2020 carbon intensity reduction target. The findings from this study show that a determined approach by China can lead to the achievement of its 2020 goal. In particular, with full success in deepening its energy efficiency policies and programs but following the same general approach used during the 11th Five Year Plan, it is possible to achieve 49% reduction in CO(sub 2) emissions per unit of GDP (CO(sub 2) emissions intensity) in 2020 from 2005 levels (E3 case). Under the more optimistic but feasible assumptions of development and penetration of advanced energy efficiency technology (Max Tech case), China could achieve a 56% reduction in CO(sub 2) emissions intensity in 2020 relative to 2005 with cumulative reduction of energy use by 2700 Mtce and of CO(sub 2) emissions of 8107 Mt CO(sub 2) between 2010 and 2020. Energy savings and CO(sub 2) mitigation potential varies by sector but most of the energy savings potential is found in energy-intensive industry. At the same time, electricity savings and the associated emissions reduction are magnified by increasing renewable generation and improving coal generation efficiency, underscoring the dual importance of end-use efficiency improvements and power sector decarbonization.