Electric and hybrid electric vehicles: A technology assessment based on a two-stage Delphi study

摘要

To address the uncertainty regarding future costs and operating attributes of electric and hybrid electric vehicles, a two stage, worldwide Delphi study was conducted. Expert opinions on vehicle attributes, current state of the technology, possible advancements, costs, and market penetration potential were sought for the years 2000, 2010, and 2020. Opinions related to such critical components as batteries, electric drive systems, and hybrid vehicle engines, as well as their respective technical and economic viabilities, were also obtained. This report contains descriptions of the survey methodology, analytical approach, and results of the analysis of survey data, together with a summary of other factors that will influence the degree of market success of electric and hybrid electric vehicle technologies. Responses by industry participants, the largest fraction among all the participating groups, are compared with the overall responses. An evaluation of changes between the two Delphi stages is also summarized. An analysis of battery replacement costs for various types is summarized, and variable operating costs for electric and hybrid vehicles are compared with those of conventional vehicles. A market penetration analysis is summarized, in which projected market shares from the survey are compared with predictions of shares on the basis of two market share projection models that use the cost and physical attributes provided by the survey. Finally, projections of market shares beyond the year 2020 are developed by use of constrained logit models of market shares, statistically fitted to the survey data.