Direct Releases to the Surface and Associated Complementary Cumulative Distribution Functions in the 1996 Performance Assessement for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant: Direct Brine Release;Reliability Engineering and System Safety (Special Journal Issue)

摘要

The following topics related to the treatment of direct brine releases to the surface environment in the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) are presented: (1) mathematical description of models; (2) uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results arising from subjective (i.e., epistemic) uncertainty for individual releases; (3) construction of complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDFs) arising from stochastic (i.e., aleatory) uncertainty, and (4) uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results for CCDFs. The presented analyses indicate that direct brine releases do not constitute a serious threat to the effectiveness of the WIPP as a disposal facility for transuranic waste. Even when the effect of uncertain analysis inputs are taken into account, the CCDFs for direct brine releases fall substantially to the left of the boundary line specified in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's standard for the geologic disposal of radioactive waste (40 CFR 191, 40 CFR 194).