How May Did You Say. Historical and Projected Spent Nuclear Fuel Shipments in the United States, 1964-2048

摘要

No comprehensive, up-to-date, official database exists for spent nuclear fuel shipments in the United States. The authors review the available data sources, and conclude that the absence of such a database can only be rectified by a major research effort, similar to that carried out by Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) in the early 1990s. Based on a variety of published references, and unpublished data from the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), the authors estimate cumulative U.S. shipments of commercial spent fuel for the period 1964-2001. The cumulative estimates include quantity shipped, number of cask-shipments, and shipment-miles, by truck and by rail. The authors review previous estimates of future spent fuel shipments, including contractor reports prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), NRC, and the State of Nevada. The DOE Final Environmental Impact Statement (FEIS) for Yucca Mountain includes projections of spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive was te shipments for two inventory disposal scenarios (24 years and 38 years) and two national transportation modal scenarios ('mostly legal-weight truck' and 'mostly rail'). Commercial spent fuel would compromise about 90 percent of the wastes shipped to the repository. The authors estimate potential shipments to Yucca Mountain over 38 years (2010-2048) for the DOE 'mostly legal-weight truck' and 'mostly rail' scenarios, and for an alternative modal mix scenario based on current shipping capabilities of the 72 commercial reactor sites. The cumulative estimates of future spent fuel shipments include quantity shipped, number of cask-shipments, and shipment-miles, by legal-weight truck, heavy-haul truck, rail and barge.