Approach to Assessing Local Socio-Cultural Impacts Using Projections of Population Growth and Composition

摘要

All assessment of future domestic development projects assumes that the problems to be examined have been properly identified and defined before the application of a projection technique. An attempt is made to codify socio-cultural problems mentioned in literature and clarify how existing demographic projection techniques can be applied to assessing the problems. The relationship between changes in local population size and composition induced by in-migration and the potential for socio-cultural incompatibilities is described heuristically. For simplification, the problems expected to emerge from differences in demographic composition are classified into three categories: (1) service needs, such as those for housing, recreation, and education; (2) types of social organizations related to capacities for, or constraints on, reaping the benefits of rapid economic development and social changes (e.g., employment and income); and (3) attitudes, values, and cultural perspectives. These areas of concern are very broad, and quantitative projections of population size and composition are more easily related to the first than to the third. Although demographic projection provides a valuable tool for estimating future social change, the knowledge about cause and effect is not sufficient to support the quantification of socio-cultural impact. Therefore, the projections are used only as relative indicators and the assessments of socio-cultural impact based on them are qualitative only. Therefore, identification and assessment of socio-cultural impacts are a means of developing plans to overcome the expected problems. (ERA citation 04:019336)