Stochastic Analysis of over-Temperature Failures of Electric Power Cables

摘要

The salient conclusion of this research on over-temperature failures of electric power transmission cables is that the probability of over-temperature of an electric power cable subject to random loadng (of any statistical form) is calculable using a Volterra integral formulation. This formulation first finds the probability density of endpoint temperature. The statistics of over-temperature time are calculable from the endpoint temperature and asymptotic temperature. This method has potential applications in the planning of electric cable systems. The method developed has been checked versus Monte Carlo simulation and agreement within a few percent was obtained.